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Vol. 1  ·  No. 695
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319 articles
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Coverage: stance:base case
319articles
Apr 1, 2026first coverage
Oct 6, 2026most recent
Tax & Wealth (86)Economy (68)Market (84)Geopolitical (25)Weekend Edition (3)Behavioural (53)
Tax & Wealth
The Two-Thirds Rate Is Now the Law. The Planning Window Is Open.
Canada's capital gains inclusion rate is 66.67% for corporate accounts and for individual gains above $250,000, effective January 1, 2026. With markets elevated and a volatile summer ahead, the review conversation is overdue.
May 11, 2026 7 min
Market
Jobs Miss Hits the TSX on a Complicated Friday
Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April, unemployment rose to 6.9%, and oil is caught between a fragile Hormuz ceasefire and UAE supply math. The TSX opened lower.
May 8, 2026 6 min
Geopolitical
The Hormuz MOU: What the Deal Framework Means for Canadian Portfolios
A 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding is taking shape, with Iranian responses expected imminently. The deal's structure, not its signing, is now the variable that matters for Canadian energy and bond holders.
May 8, 2026 7 min
Economy
What 6.9% Unemployment Changes About the June 10 Decision
Canada has now lost 112,000 jobs since January, almost entirely full-time. The Bank of Canada meets June 10 with inflation running above target and a labour market that is softening faster than anyone expected.
May 8, 2026 7 min
Tax & Wealth
The Energy Shock and the Non-Registered Account Conversation Advisors Are Not Having
Oil's surge since late February has generated significant unrealized capital gains in non-registered accounts. With the 50% inclusion rate confirmed for 2026 and a Hormuz resolution potentially on the horizon, the window for managing those gains is narrowing.
May 8, 2026 7 min
Behavioural
The Availability Heuristic, Hormuz, and Why Clients Are Overweighting the Worst Case
The vivid imagery of a closed strait, $110 oil, and 30% higher gas prices has activated a well-documented cognitive bias. Kahneman and Tversky's availability heuristic is producing exactly the portfolio distortions advisors should expect, and address.
May 8, 2026 7 min
Geopolitical
The One-Page Framework: What the US-Iran MOU Would Actually Mean for the Hormuz Premium
Washington and Tehran are reportedly within 48 hours of agreeing on a preliminary memorandum of understanding. What it would and would not resolve, and what it means for the oil price in every Canadian portfolio.
May 7, 2026 7 min
Economy
The Bank of Canada’s Two-Directional Dilemma: What the April 29 Hold Actually Said
The BoC held at 2.25% and said both cuts and hikes remain on the table. That is not a hedge. It is a precise description of the most difficult monetary policy environment in a generation.
May 7, 2026 6 min
Tax & Wealth
Tomorrow’s Jobs Report and the Mortgage Renewal Math That Doesn’t Add Up
Statistics Canada releases April employment data tomorrow. With the BoC holding at 2.25% and a wave of mortgage renewals hitting at rates far above what borrowers locked in, the jobs number matters more than usual.
May 7, 2026 6 min
Weekend Edition
The Best Week Since November Was Built on a Ceasefire That Hasn't Been Signed Yet
S&P 500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%. Best weekly gain since November, snapping a five-week losing streak. S&P closed Friday at 6,816.89, Nasdaq at 22,902.89, Dow at 47,916.57.
Apr 11, 2026 7 min
Tax & Wealth
The Gas Tax Rebate Conservatives Want, and What It Would Actually Mean for Client Cash Flow
The Conservative ask is on the table. Federal Conservatives are calling on Ottawa to return some of the excise revenue collected during the Iran oil spike, economists are split on whether a tax cut is
Apr 10, 2026 2 min
Economy
Canada's March Jobs Rebound Lands Six Days Before the BoC, and Changes Everything About the Rate Path
Statistics Canada reported a modest March rebound in the Labour Force Survey released at 8:30 AM this morning, ending a two-month run of job losses to start the year
Apr 10, 2026 3 min
Geopolitical
The Iran Ceasefire Just Survived 48 Hours, Now Comes the Hormuz Test
The surprise ceasefire is now 48 hours old. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Wednesday, conditional on an immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Apr 10, 2026 3 min
Market
TSX Opens Friday Caught Between a Jobs Print and an Oil Collapse, and Energy Is Already Telling the Story
The TSX closed Thursday at 33,477, down 0.42% on the session as the energy sector unwound while financials caught a bid on the prospect of a more cautious BoC
Apr 10, 2026 3 min
Tax & Wealth
The Ceasefire and Your Clients' Mortgages: What the April 29 BoC Decision Now Looks Like
The Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on April 29 -- near certainty. Markets price the probability of no change at 96.5%. The more consequential question is what the accompanying Monetary Policy Report si
Apr 9, 2026 4 min
Economy
Canada's Stagflation Trap: Why the Ceasefire Doesn't Solve the BoC's Real Problem
Canada entered the Iran crisis with an already-softening economy. The BoC's March statement noted employment gains from Q4 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, with unemployment
Apr 9, 2026 4 min
Showing 289–304 of 319 articles

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