WTI crude closed at $102.55 on September 13, the day an Iranian vessel was struck near Qeshm, and the chain from the Strait of Hormuz to Canadian portfolios runs through gasoline prices, energy equities, and the currency.

WTI crude closed at $102.48 on September 10, up 25 per cent since mid-August, as U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian retaliation against ships using unauthorized routes have cut Hormuz traffic by more than a third.

WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.

WTI crude closed at $92.72 Tuesday after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck three Saudi Aramco facilities, and the mechanism that changed is more consequential for Canadian portfolios than the price level itself.

WTI has risen 15% since August 10, most of it in the two sessions since Iran's attack on a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism connecting that to Canadian portfolios runs through the currency as much as the energy sector.

Iran's strikes near Kuwait have pushed Brent from under $89 to above $95 in three weeks, and the mechanism connecting that move to Canadian portfolios runs directly through the TSX energy sub-index, not around it.

China alone is now taking more than 200,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude as Gulf supply risk mounts, and Trans Mountain has nowhere left to put the rest of the demand it is attracting.

A safe haven story investors have relied on for months is not holding up against this week's escalation, and the data shows exactly where the mechanism broke down.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

Brent has risen 4.5% in two sessions after the U.S. struck Iranian positions accused of preparing to mine the strait itself, not just harass shipping, and that distinction matters for how far the Canadian energy trade can run.

Monday's tanker attacks and the first direct US-Iran exchange in a month reopen a risk premium markets spent August pricing away. The mechanism runs straight through Canadian energy, the loonie, and tomorrow's Bank of Canada decision.

WTI jumped over 3% Monday after the first American strike on Iranian territory in a month. Gold barely moved. That gap tells Canadian portfolios exactly what kind of shock this is, and what it is not.

A hold at 2.25% is the consensus call for September 2. The weekend's US-Iran exchange revives the same energy-price mechanism that pushed headline inflation to a war-era peak in May.

The weekend's first US-Iran military exchange in a month caught portfolios positioned for calm. Kahneman and Tversky mapped exactly why quiet weeks make the next shock feel unprecedented.

Constructive Oman-Iran talks pushed oil to a one-month low this week. A new US-Iran exchange over sanctions erased the move within two days.

WTI peaked near $87 on August 21 and has fallen more than six percent since, even as the U.S. sanctions campaign against Iran grew tougher. The market is pricing military risk and economic risk very differently.