WTI fell roughly 5 percent this week and Treasury yields hit fresh multi-decade highs, but neither move explains what happened to the TSX or the loonie.

Five desks, one throughline. A 175 basis point gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada moved the currency, the bond market, the mining sector and client conversations this week, while oil told a stranger story of its own.

USD/CAD closed at 1.4138 Thursday, its weakest level for the loonie since early August, as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a steady Bank of Canada pulled further apart.

Wednesday brought the sharpest single session decline in three months. The pattern behind client anxiety this week has a name, and it is not the index level.

The composite index closed at 35,933.27 Wednesday, down 402.34 points as base metal shares reversed the same sector gains that drove a 326 point rally Tuesday, while energy names cushioned the decline as oil held near $92.

The volatility index closed near 15 on Wednesday even as the TSX reversed a 326 point Tuesday gain into a 402 point drop, and loss aversion research explains why the quiet headline number is the wrong signal for what clients are feeling.

The Fed hike case is running on U.S. demand while the Bank of Canada hike case is running on crude, which turns a Hormuz peace deal into a double negative for the Canadian dollar.

The TSX Composite closed at 36,228.74 Tuesday, up 0.61 per cent, rebounding sharply from a September 16 low as technology and base metals names offset a sixth straight session of falling oil.

WTI crude has fallen for six straight sessions, from a peak of $105.83 on September 15 to $90.56 Wednesday, on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a Saudi pipeline workaround, well ahead of any confirmed change to Strait of Hormuz shipping.

Six straight sessions of falling crude are undercutting the fuel-cost case for further Bank of Canada hikes, while a materials rally reveals where Canadian investors are actually positioning.

Gold is down 6.1 percent from its August peak even as the Middle East conflict continues, and the mechanism is the Federal Reserve, not the geopolitics.

WTI crude gained nearly 20 percent as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. The TSX energy sector gained barely 2 percent on the same day.

Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.

The composite fell 67.61 points Friday to cap a week shaped by the Federal Reserve first rate hike since 2023 and a Hormuz-driven swing in oil. Energy was the sole sector to post a weekly gain among the decliners.

The Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023 while the Bank of Canada held and floated cuts, yet Canadian bond yields kept climbing regardless of which way the Bank leans.

Thursday's Fed relief rally reversed within one session, and the asset that should have fallen alongside rising bond yields did the opposite instead.