The composite index closed at 35,933.27 Wednesday, down 402.34 points as base metal shares reversed the same sector gains that drove a 326 point rally Tuesday, while energy names cushioned the decline as oil held near $92.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases, and Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $103.61 on the news rather than falling, because the mechanism connecting that offer to Canadian energy portfolios runs through whether the ceasefire actually holds, not through the headline alone.

The volatility index closed near 15 on Wednesday even as the TSX reversed a 326 point Tuesday gain into a 402 point drop, and loss aversion research explains why the quiet headline number is the wrong signal for what clients are feeling.

The Fed hike case is running on U.S. demand while the Bank of Canada hike case is running on crude, which turns a Hormuz peace deal into a double negative for the Canadian dollar.

The TSX Composite closed at 36,228.74 Tuesday, up 0.61 per cent, rebounding sharply from a September 16 low as technology and base metals names offset a sixth straight session of falling oil.

WTI crude has fallen for six straight sessions, from a peak of $105.83 on September 15 to $90.56 Wednesday, on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a Saudi pipeline workaround, well ahead of any confirmed change to Strait of Hormuz shipping.

Six straight sessions of falling crude are undercutting the fuel-cost case for further Bank of Canada hikes, while a materials rally reveals where Canadian investors are actually positioning.

WTI crude gained nearly 20 percent as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified. The TSX energy sector gained barely 2 percent on the same day.

Four sessions of falling crude reflect a shipping rebound the Pentagon is describing and Tehran is denying, and Canadian yields are not confirming either story.

The composite fell 67.61 points Friday to cap a week shaped by the Federal Reserve first rate hike since 2023 and a Hormuz-driven swing in oil. Energy was the sole sector to post a weekly gain among the decliners.

WTI has fallen for four straight sessions as Washington signals openness to talks with Iran at the UN General Assembly. The tanker war that sent oil toward 100 dollars has not ended, but the market is now pricing a chance that it might.

The Government of Canada five-year yield has climbed nearly half a point since late August. August CPI shows why the Bank of Canada cannot simply celebrate a flat headline number.

AAII bearish sentiment hit a sixteen-month high the same week the VIX eased back toward its own average. The gap is a live case study in availability bias.

The Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023 while the Bank of Canada held and floated cuts, yet Canadian bond yields kept climbing regardless of which way the Bank leans.

Trump says the Iran war may be nearing an end even as a new front opens between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with a damaged pipeline threatening 4 percent of global oil supply. For Canadian portfolios, the mechanism runs in two directions at once.

Two central banks read the same energy-driven inflation data this week and reached opposite conclusions about whether it will last. Thursday sided with the one that held.