The TSX gained 1.25% Tuesday, but the sector split was the signal: financials up 1.85%, energy down 2.34%. The market is not betting on prolonged disruption. It is pricing a resolution.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Canada's April CPI came in at 2.8%, below the consensus of 3.1%. The more consequential number was buried underneath it: core inflation fell to a five-year low. That split creates an unusually difficult June 10 decision for the Bank of Canada.

Canadian energy stocks are up 50-plus percent since March. The TFSA is the only account where booking those gains and rotating the proceeds costs nothing in tax. The window will not stay open indefinitely.

When markets bounce on ceasefire optimism, a well-documented psychological mechanism pushes investors toward a mistake they will regret the moment the next headline arrives.

WTI below $100 and core CPI at a five-year low handed the Bank of Canada its clearest signal yet. The bond market saw it. The currency saw it. The equity market told a more complicated story than the headline suggested.

Energy gained 2.3%. Mining lost between 2% and 6%. Financials dropped. Tech retreated. The index nearly flat is an arithmetic accident produced by one sector offsetting everything else. The US 30-year yield at a 19-year high is what drove the session.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE convinced Trump to stand down from a planned Tuesday strike on Iran. The ceasefire is alive. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. For Canadian energy investors, the calculus depends on which scenario resolves this standoff: a deal in weeks, or stalemate through the summer.

Core inflation cooled to 2.1% in April, handing the Bank of Canada the cover it needs to hold at its June 10 meeting. The harder question is the one the data does not answer: the Bank's April MPR assumed Brent oil at $90. It is at $111.

Canada's 5-year bond yield is at 3.3% and climbing. Over one million Canadians renew this year. The planning question isn't just about rate selection. It's about which accounts should be bearing the fixed income exposure, and how renewal payment shock intersects with registered account deployment.

Gold stayed near $4,500 Tuesday while Canadian miners shed 2% to 6%. The divergence is not a market anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing what it always does: overwriting the correct frame with the most recent one.

Canada's April inflation print came in below consensus and core cooled to a five-year low. Yields rose anyway. That contradiction is the most important signal of the day for Canadian portfolios.

The first session back from Victoria Day opens with a below-consensus CPI print, a Brent selloff on the Iran postponement, and a GoC 10-year yield at a two-year high. Three sectors are pointing in three different directions.

Trump called off a planned Iran strike overnight. Brent fell 2%. The structural impasse between Washington and Tehran remains exactly where it was, and the Hormuz timeline for Canadian energy portfolios has not changed.

April CPI came in at 2.8%, under both the market consensus and the Bank of Canada's own peak projection. Core inflation is at a five-year low. The June 10 decision just got considerably simpler.

April CPI at 2.8% adds another data point to a calculation that is already nearly locked: the 2027 TFSA annual limit is almost certainly rising to $7,500. Most advisors are not talking about this yet.