Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

The communications blackout ahead of the July 15 decision begins this morning, the same day Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank will decide with May's inflation data, a week before June's number arrives.

The CRA confirmed the family loan rate stays at 3 percent through September, the longest stretch of stability since the 1 percent era ended in 2022. With Government of Canada yields still above 3 percent, the income splitting window has not closed.

Gold fell 16 percent from its April peak as the market priced a durable calm in the Strait of Hormuz. Monday night's tanker attack is a live test of recency bias, and it will play out in client phone calls before it plays out in prices.

Physical shipping through the strait has already caught up to what this morning's Geopolitical piece called a lagging recovery, but a fresh OPEC+ supply increase, not the August toll dispute, is what pulled Canadian energy names down today.

The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

May's 3.2% headline print looks like a problem for the July 15 decision. The core data underneath it argues the opposite.

The July 1 non-renewal changed no tariff rates, but it shifted Canadian business owners from a six-year trade policy horizon to an annual one.

The metal's June capitulation and its July rebound were driven by the same behavioural pattern, just pointed in opposite directions.

WTI crude fell for a fourth straight week to its lowest close since the Hormuz disruption began, yet the Canadian dollar strengthened over the final two sessions. Gold miners, not energy, carried the TSX toward a record.

US markets were dark for Independence Day, so the loonie, the TSX and the GoC curve each priced on domestic logic alone, and the day exposed a resource complex that has quietly split in two.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

Thursday's 57,000 US payrolls print sent gold above $4,100 and cut Fed hike probability for September nearly in half. The Bank of Canada's July 15 decision was already set before the data landed, and it remains set after. Understanding why is the analytical work Canadian advisors need to do this week.

The mandatory six-year CUSMA review formally began this week, with auto rules of origin and EV supply chains on the table. Most advisors are watching the trade angle. The more immediate planning question is what a prolonged negotiation means for the clients whose registered accounts hold US-listed securities.