Canada's April CPI came in below the worst fears. History is clear on what retail investors do next, and it is rarely right.

The TSX shed 435 points on May 15 as a global bond rout and stalled Hormuz talks punished miners, banks, and rate-sensitive names. Energy was the lone sector standing. The TSX is closed today for Victoria Day. Tuesday opens with April CPI and the Iran NSC meeting outcome landing simultaneously.

Trump convened a national security review of military options against Iran on Sunday. A meeting with advisors is scheduled for Tuesday. The IRGC has threatened to "deactivate" US Gulf bases. Day 80 of the Hormuz closure arrives with the ceasefire visibly fraying — and with it the oil premium that has driven every major market move of 2026.

Statistics Canada releases April inflation data on May 19 — the first reading after the carbon levy base-effect clears and the first test of whether the March energy shock is feeding into broader price pressures. The Bank of Canada's May 13 deliberations identified the precise conditions that would shift its rate path.

The Bank of Canada's deliberations published May 13 reveal a genuine fork in the rate path. April CPI releases tomorrow. The asset location decisions inside TFSAs, RRSPs, and FHSAs are different depending on which scenario the data confirms — and the window to act is three weeks.

Eleven weeks of elevated crude has recalibrated what investors call "normal." The research on anchoring explains why that shift is dangerous — and why the most costly portfolio decisions of 2026 are still ahead.

The Trump-Xi summit produced framework language, not Hormuz progress. Kevin Warsh inherits the Fed chair today into an oil-at-$103 inflation environment. The traditional safe haven trade inverted. The implication for Macklem's June 3 decision is not what the morning frameworks could have seen.

U.S. futures are down sharply on summit disappointment. Brent crude is up 2% above $107. The TSX faces a split-market session: energy names should outperform while technology and rate-sensitives take the hit. The Canadian read is more complicated than the headline suggests.

The Trump-Xi summit ended without China committing to pressure Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations are on life support. For Canadian portfolios, the geopolitical story is now about how long the oil premium persists, and what that means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 calculus.

April CPI is expected to confirm inflation at 3% when Statistics Canada reports Tuesday. Unemployment is at 6.9% with full-time jobs falling. Governor Macklem has four weeks to navigate a decision that cuts in both directions.

With Canada CPI heading toward 3% and five-year bond yields at 3.2%, the conventional wisdom about what goes inside a TFSA and what belongs in an RRSP needs a direct re-examination. The real return math has changed.

Markets are selling off this morning not because anything went wrong in Beijing — but because nothing went spectacularly right. That distinction matters enormously for investors, and most of them will not make it.

The Beijing summit produced a headline the market priced as oil-bearish. But the Manulife miss and the Warsh confirmation, run through the morning's frameworks together, reveal a different and more durable pressure building on the TSX.

The TSX fell 0.5% Wednesday as technology names dropped 2% to a one-month low while energy stocks held steady above $100 oil. The divergence tells a specific story about how the Canadian market is pricing the Hormuz supply shock versus the inflation-driven rate re-rating.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic since late February. Seventy-six days in, the IEA says the market will remain significantly undersupplied until October even if the conflict ends next month. The Canadian portfolio implications run deeper than the oil price.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday with the narrowest margin in the modern era. He inherits back-to-back inflation shocks and a central bank whose next move markets now price as more likely a hike than a cut. What it means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 decision.