The index closed September 30 at the low of the day, its lowest close since July 31. Gold futures fell 6.6% as the US 10-year yield rose 51 basis points, and First Quantum closed 15% lower on Panama news.

Estimates of oil moving through the strait range from 3.7 to 16.4 million barrels a day. Iran offered a seven-day reopening, Washington rejected the sequencing, and Brent moved less than 3% on either headline.

Headline CPI reached the ceiling of the 1% to 3% control range in August on gasoline, while core measures sit near 2% and July GDP was flat. September CPI on October 19 frames the decision.

The prescribed rate stays at 3% from October 1 to December 31, half its early 2024 peak. The rate on a spousal or family trust loan is fixed on the day the loan is made, and the interest is due by January 30.

The TSX Composite closed September 2.85% below its August 31 level and 1.09% above its June 30 level, the ninth straight quarterly gain. Behavioural research explains why the shorter window tends to win the emotional argument.

Brent rose 14% and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, yet the TSX, gold and the Canadian dollar all fell as the US 10-year yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 and the Federal Reserve raised rates. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% and watched its own yields rise by 36 basis points.

The 3-month yield fell and the 30-year yield rose after the August PCE, while the US minus Canada 10-year spread and USD/CAD kept climbing.

The TSX closed at its lowest level since July 31, gold and materials ETFs fell 6% to 8%, and energy stocks slipped even as Brent gained 13%.

Qatar is carrying an amended proposal, President Trump expects a deal only after the November midterms, and Brent settled at $102.59 after a 13% September gain.

Construction and utilities offset manufacturing and retail in July, August is tracking a 0.2% gain, and three bank economics teams read the Bank of Canada risk differently.

A family loan made by December 31 locks in 3% for life, the Government of Canada 10-year yield is near 4%, and the January 30 interest deadline falls on a Saturday.

Protection against a stock decline is near a one-year low while Treasury yields sit at a two-decade high, a pairing that probability weighting and the availability heuristic help explain.

A sale on September 29 settles October 1 and restricts repurchase through October 31, while the federal tax value of the loss is smaller than the single-day move in gold on Monday.

The S&P/TSX Composite lost 0.87% on a gold selloff while U.S. yields hit levels last seen in 2007, and the Federal Reserve decision on October 28 now carries most of the weight.

WTI closed lower on the day Washington turned down Tehran, because Middle East exports are at a wartime high and talks resume this week, which keeps Canadian energy names supported but not unconditionally.

Headline inflation sits at the top of the 1% to 3% range because gasoline is up 22.8%, and the gap between that energy signal and the rate path is where the October 28 decision lands.