The ceasefire cycle ran its full course in four days. Markets rallied Tuesday and Wednesday on Trump's claim that Iran requested a ceasefire, then reversed hard Thursday morning after his prime-time a

Trump promised more strikes, not a ceasefire. In his prime-time address Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. will "hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks" and vowed no ceasefire until the

The BoC's March deliberations were released Wednesday, revealing a governing council explicitly weighing whether the oil shock would push inflation broadly higher or remain contained to energy

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Wednesday that the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war "will be much worse" in April than March, because pre-war cargo shipments that transited the Strait b

Five weeks of sustained oil shock changes the planning calculus. What looked like a short-term geopolitical spike in late February now has structural characteristics that warrant a deliberate account-

The ceasefire hope-and-disappointment cycle has now repeated three times since the Iran war began on February 28: oil fell on March 23 when Trump suggested talks, surged on March 27 when they failed,

The 5-year GoC bond yield moved from 2.7% to 3.2% this month without the BoC changing its rate. That 50-basis-point repricing has already pushed fixed mortgage rates higher at major lenders, affecting

TSX up 738 points to 32,673 as Trump's ceasefire claim triggers a broad risk-on rally across North American markets, following Tuesday's 833-point surge

The Bank of Canada publishes its March 18 deliberations today at 1:30 PM ET, providing the most detailed window yet into how Governing Council is thinking about an economy simultaneously hit by a coll

Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that Iran's president asked the U.S. for a ceasefire and he will consider it only after the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear." Iran has not confirme

Inflation is heading above 3% in March as the oil shock passes through to gasoline, transportation, and food costs, the first breach of the Bank of Canada's upper target band since 2023

After five weeks of losses and a 7% S&P 500 decline, markets have posted two sharp consecutive gains totalling more than 5% on Iran ceasefire signals, a pattern that behavioural research identifies as