Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

The Bank of Canada holds for the seventh consecutive time. The rate is unchanged. The policy dilemma underneath it has never been more acute.

With the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% and the GoC five-year yield at 3.15%, the 2026 mortgage renewal wave has a tax dimension most planning conversations are missing.

The Bank of Canada holds again today. Research on status quo bias explains why some clients will do nothing with their mortgage even when doing nothing costs them more.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

A hold at 2.25% tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. All 34 economists surveyed expect it. What is not foregone is the language. The Bank must reconcile a technical recession in Q1, a CPI print at 2.8%, and a renewed Hormuz escalation in a single statement. That reconciliation tells advisors which direction the next move goes.

The CRA has locked the prescribed rate at 3% for Q3 2026. The Bank of Canada decides tomorrow. If Macklem signals a hike is coming, Q4's prescribed rate rises and the income-splitting window that has been open since mid-2025 narrows further. Clients who are not yet in a prescribed rate loan structure are running out of optionality.

Missiles over Tel Aviv on Sunday night. The TSX up 0.19% on Monday. The gap between what your clients felt and what markets did is not an anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing exactly what Tversky and Kahneman predicted it would.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

Trump says a deal is largely negotiated. Iran says the description is incomplete and inconsistent with reality. WTI at $90 is the market's verdict on who is right.

A blowout U.S. payrolls print has repriced Fed expectations. The Bank of Canada decides in 48 hours with inflation at 2.8% and a domestic economy that cannot absorb a rate hike.

Clients shifting appreciated energy positions into their TFSAs are triggering taxable deemed dispositions. The loss side is worse: those capital losses are gone permanently.

The TSX hit an all-time high Thursday, then fell 2.3% Friday. For clients who watched both, the sequence matters more than the math.