The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

Canadian energy stocks have surged 69% or more in 2026 on Hormuz-elevated oil. For clients holding those gains in non-registered accounts, the planning conversation is urgent and specific: when to realize, how to shelter, and which account type governs the answer.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.

Energy positions sitting on large unrealized gains, a confirmed 50% capital gains inclusion rate, and $109,000 in cumulative TFSA room: the conditions for a mid-year rebalancing conversation are better than they have been in three years.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day MOU on May 28 that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has not yet signed it. And even a signed deal does not restore oil supply: Pentagon briefings put mine-clearing at up to six months, and Middle East producers need three to four months to restart shut-in capacity.

Brent crude has fallen roughly 20% from its April peak. Most Canadian investors are still anchored to the high. Understanding why is what separates a useful advisor conversation from a useless one.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.