Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

The composite closed at 35,906.56 Wednesday, down 0.6% and in its fourth decline in five sessions, even as WTI crude climbed toward $100 on the tanker war.

WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.

The Bank held at 2.25% on September 2 and named gasoline-driven inflation as the reason to stay cautious. WTI has moved 7% higher since, ahead of the CPI print that lands before the October decision.

WTI is up 18% in thirteen sessions as the tanker war escalates, and the same headlines pulling clients toward energy are the pattern Barber and Odean’s research says loses money.

A war escalation and a trade fight pulled Canadian portfolios in opposite directions today. The Government of Canada 10-year yield did not move enough to say which one the bond market believes.

WTI crude closed at $92.72 Tuesday after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck three Saudi Aramco facilities, and the mechanism that changed is more consequential for Canadian portfolios than the price level itself.

AAII's latest sentiment survey shows both readings above their historical averages, and the TSX's Tuesday decline did not come from the headline most investors will blame for it.

Tuesday's retaliatory tariffs, not the widening Iran conflict, finally moved the yield that Fed dovishness and a historic jobs miss could not.

WTI is on its sixth straight higher session heading into the Tuesday open, U.S. futures are lower on Middle East and rate uncertainty, and the split puts Canadian energy names on the right side of both stories at once.

WTI has risen 15% since August 10, most of it in the two sessions since Iran's attack on a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism connecting that to Canadian portfolios runs through the currency as much as the energy sector.

The overnight rate stayed at 2.25% on Tuesday, the longest hold streak of the cutting cycle. Governor Tiff Macklem says tariffs are a modest inflation risk. The bigger one is sitting in the Strait of Hormuz.

Five of the last six trading sessions broke the TSX average daily swing, but two of those five were gains. What is remembered from a week like this is not what happened.

A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.

Iran's strikes near Kuwait have pushed Brent from under $89 to above $95 in three weeks, and the mechanism connecting that move to Canadian portfolios runs directly through the TSX energy sub-index, not around it.

A three-session slide gave way to a sharp bounce as the same war headlines that triggered the selling also powered the snapback, and loss aversion research explains why so many investors read the sequence backwards.