WTI has dropped more than $20 from its April peak. Clients sitting on large energy gains are feeling something Kahneman identified in 1979. The advisor who understands the disposition effect will hold them in place. The one who does not will watch them lock in a tax bill and miss the next leg.

The language shift nobody noticed: why Macklem's "near-term" replaced "immediate" at exactly the moment WTI hit $90 on a seventh consecutive inventory draw.

The TSX shed 67 points Tuesday as rate-sensitive financials and utilities dragged while energy held. The composite is navigating two separate markets dressed as one index.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

The index closed June 8 up 0.19%, reversing the geopolitical fear premium from the weekend strikes. What it did not recover was Friday's 2.3% selloff, which was driven by a blowout Canadian jobs print and a bond yield spike that has nothing to do with Iran. That distinction matters for what the BoC statement does tomorrow.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

Markets partially clawed back Friday's selloff on Monday. The same variable driving the recovery is the one that moved April CPI to a two-year high. Macklem's Wednesday statement will have to resolve the contradiction.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

Trump says a deal is largely negotiated. Iran says the description is incomplete and inconsistent with reality. WTI at $90 is the market's verdict on who is right.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

Iran struck Kuwait International Airport on June 3, suspended peace talks, and traded strikes with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through one variable: whether these escalations threaten the Hormuz supply disruption that has underpinned the energy re-rating since February 28.

Canadian energy stocks have surged 69% or more in 2026 on Hormuz-elevated oil. For clients holding those gains in non-registered accounts, the planning conversation is urgent and specific: when to realize, how to shelter, and which account type governs the answer.

The index gained 1.25% on June 2, led by financials and energy, one day after Iran suspended ceasefire negotiations. The market's ability to shrug off that headline is either sophisticated or complacent. The data argues for both readings simultaneously.