Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Iran hit two more tankers, the U.S. struck back twice, and both sides stood down ahead of Doha talks on June 30. The mechanism that actually moves a Canadian portfolio runs through war risk insurance, not the headlines.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.

A 60-day US license for Iranian oil sales and a Geneva peace framework have pushed crude to a three-month low, and the Canadian energy re-rating built on a closed shipping lane is the first thing testing that move.

The price reaction to Saturday's closure claim was a fraction of what the same claim produced in March and April. The reason is the chain that matters for Canadian energy producers heading into the back half of the year.

Iran's safe passage guarantee for commercial shipping has a literal expiration date, Israel has not signed on, and a $24 billion dispute remains open. None of that is in this week's oil price.

WTI has fallen nearly 30% since the Hormuz memorandum was signed. On June 17, Trump warned bombing could resume. The market has not adjusted, and that gap is the tail risk Canadian portfolios are not pricing.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

The US-Iran agreement signed June 15 ends the blockade phase and begins a 60-day nuclear negotiation window. For Canadian portfolios, the immediate read-through is lower oil, a recovering loonie, and a BoC that can finally look past its inflation constraint. The tail risk is that the deal does not hold.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.