WTI crude closed at $102.48 on September 10, up 25 per cent since mid-August, as U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian retaliation against ships using unauthorized routes have cut Hormuz traffic by more than a third.

WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.

WTI crude closed at $92.72 Tuesday after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck three Saudi Aramco facilities, and the mechanism that changed is more consequential for Canadian portfolios than the price level itself.

WTI has risen 15% since August 10, most of it in the two sessions since Iran's attack on a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism connecting that to Canadian portfolios runs through the currency as much as the energy sector.

Iran's strikes near Kuwait have pushed Brent from under $89 to above $95 in three weeks, and the mechanism connecting that move to Canadian portfolios runs directly through the TSX energy sub-index, not around it.

China alone is now taking more than 200,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude as Gulf supply risk mounts, and Trans Mountain has nowhere left to put the rest of the demand it is attracting.

Brent has risen 4.5% in two sessions after the U.S. struck Iranian positions accused of preparing to mine the strait itself, not just harass shipping, and that distinction matters for how far the Canadian energy trade can run.

Monday's tanker attacks and the first direct US-Iran exchange in a month reopen a risk premium markets spent August pricing away. The mechanism runs straight through Canadian energy, the loonie, and tomorrow's Bank of Canada decision.

WTI jumped over 3% Monday after the first American strike on Iranian territory in a month. Gold barely moved. That gap tells Canadian portfolios exactly what kind of shock this is, and what it is not.

Constructive Oman-Iran talks pushed oil to a one-month low this week. A new US-Iran exchange over sanctions erased the move within two days.

WTI peaked near $87 on August 21 and has fallen more than six percent since, even as the U.S. sanctions campaign against Iran grew tougher. The market is pricing military risk and economic risk very differently.

WTI has fallen for three straight sessions since Washington's sweeping new Iran sanctions, because the sanctions spared Iran's trading partners and a parallel Hormuz corridor deal is progressing. Canadian energy and inflation now cut in opposite directions.

Bessent's sanctions campaign is the broadest financial pressure on Iran since the war began, and oil markets read it as diplomacy, not supply disruption. The chain that would flip that reading runs through Beijing.

The Treasury unveils its sanctions package today. The chain that actually matters runs through Beijing, not Tehran, and the market is already pricing that in.

A 50 percent US tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods is due to take effect at midnight unless a trade deal is finalized, and USD/CAD has spent two weeks pricing the outcome ahead of the headlines.

Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 19 to 3 over the past week as President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the neutral party brokering a shipping deal, introducing a new failure mode for the crisis.