A four-session trading week, Labour Day closed markets Monday, produced a war escalation, a hawkish Bank of Canada hold, and a dovish Fed comment, and none of it moved the Government of Canada 10-year yield. A single domestic jobs report did what all three could not.

Two jobs reports landed within minutes of each other and pointed in opposite directions. The Canadian and US bond curves split accordingly, and the currency reaction to Canada's miss is quietly propping up the one TSX sector most exposed to it.

A single Fed governor's comments on holding rates steady moved more Canadian markets Thursday than the Bank of Canada's own inflation warning did the day before, but the bond market that actually prices mortgages was not buying the relief rally.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

The GoC 10-year hit its highest close since early August as a worldwide sovereign selloff overwhelmed a 2.6% oil rally, weakening the loonie and the TSX the day before Wednesday's rate decision.

Family income-splitting loans locked in now keep their rate for life, even as Government of Canada yields climb toward levels that could push the prescribed rate higher as soon as January.

Canada's benchmark yield touched a two-year high, retreated, and climbed back on Wednesday's inflation data. The path says more about the Fed than about the Bank of Canada's own case for holding.

A hot US inflation print undid four sessions of declining Government of Canada yields within hours, while equity volatility barely moved and two unrelated good-news stories pulled the TSX in different directions at once.

Canada's 10-year yield eased to 3.65% from a 26-month high as trade war escalation overrode a 75,000-job July gain in shaping expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.

The trade collapse did not just move headline numbers Monday. It reversed a two week bond rally and a two week currency rally that had nothing to do with each other, while gold kept climbing on a completely separate story.

A Treasury bond buyback reversed within 24 hours, yet gold kept the gain it produced, oil rallied on a separate Hormuz story, and the loonie strengthened for a third straight week ahead of Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole debut and the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.

The BoC's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 percent for six straight meetings, but the Government of Canada 10-year yield has climbed 34 basis points in the same window, driven by a US bond market the Bank of Canada does not control.

The CRA confirmed its prescribed rate holds at 3 percent for a sixth consecutive quarter, even as rising Government of Canada bond yields raise the odds that the rate used to calculate it moves higher next year.

The U.S. Treasury's debt buyback briefly eased global yields and lifted gold on Wednesday, but Canada's own 10 year yield climbed to a fresh high Thursday regardless, and gold's pullback on a fresh Iran escalation shows the week's rally was a rates trade, not a war trade.

Headline CPI accelerated to 3.0 percent in July while core inflation barely moved, and the Federal Reserve's July minutes showed hawkish sentiment running deeper than the three known dissents.

The CRA confirmed the prescribed rate at 3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2026, but Government of Canada yields near a two year high mean the rate advisors lock in for income splitting loans today may not be available for long.