The TSX closed in on a record high, but the sector leadership behind the move signals a rate story, not an oil story.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June against a 110,000 consensus, and Thursday's market reaction split cleanly along risk lines. The TSX edged higher on gold miner strength while the S&P 500 closed mixed. WTI held near $68.56. The week's defining move was not in equities. It was in the Fed probability strip.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

June payrolls missed badly and the Dow hit a record the same morning. The gap comes down to which reference point the market was actually using.

The Iran deal drove global markets sharply higher Monday morning. But the TSX is split: energy names are selling off while financials and rate-sensitives surge. Understanding the rotation is the analysis.

WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

The TSX composite fell approximately 0.3% on Wednesday as base metals, technology, and rate-sensitive sectors absorbed the Bank of Canada's two-way risk language while energy names partially offset the decline on renewed Hormuz escalation. The session illustrated a structural divide in the Canadian market that has persisted since late February.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

The TSX shed 368 points on June 3, pulling back 1.05% from Tuesday's all-time high of 34,899. Energy gained 1.19% while financials lost 0.64%. The composite decline masked a rotation that reveals exactly what the market believes about the Hormuz supply floor.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

Wednesday's 0.70% TSX decline was driven almost entirely by a single event: Iranian state media's report of a draft Hormuz MOU that the White House immediately denied. Thursday morning, after the IRGC struck a U.S. airbase overnight, oil is back up 2% and TSX futures are higher. The Dow hit a record close both days.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Energy gained 2.3%. Mining lost between 2% and 6%. Financials dropped. Tech retreated. The index nearly flat is an arithmetic accident produced by one sector offsetting everything else. The US 30-year yield at a 19-year high is what drove the session.

The TSX fell 0.5% Wednesday as technology names dropped 2% to a one-month low while energy stocks held steady above $100 oil. The divergence tells a specific story about how the Canadian market is pricing the Hormuz supply shock versus the inflation-driven rate re-rating.

Oil's elevated floor is holding energy names aloft while U.S. equities close at records. The divergence between the two markets tells the story of two very different risk calculations.

S&P 500 +3.6%, Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%. Best weekly gain since November, snapping a five-week losing streak. S&P closed Friday at 6,816.89, Nasdaq at 22,902.89, Dow at 47,916.57.