The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records Tuesday while the TSX sits 3.5% below its record close, a gap that opened as Canadian yields rose ahead of the October 28 Bank of Canada decision.

The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.36% below its August 25 close and the U.S. indexes rose on Monday. Concentration in energy and banks explains much of the gap.

Swaps price 7 basis points for October 28 and bank forecasts top out at 2.50% for year end, yet the two-year yield implies far more, and the TSX has lagged the S&P 500 by 2.8 points since September 4.

Equities priced relief on Friday, but Treasury yields and USD/CAD closed higher, and the currency has done more to separate Canadian portfolio returns since August 26 than any move in the TSX.

The TSX closed at its lowest level since July 31, gold and materials ETFs fell 6% to 8%, and energy stocks slipped even as Brent gained 13%.

The Nasdaq Composite has added more than 1,200 points since the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, even as named strategists flag extreme concentration and what one economist calls crazy days in the stock market.

All four major North American indices closed higher Thursday as Treasury yields retreated from a 19 year high, but the size of the move split cleanly along a line that matters for Canadian portfolios.

Friday's close at 36,553.92 marked a third straight down session from the August 25 record. Monday's session opens with oil up more than 3% on the weekend's Iran-US exchange, a direct reversal of what pulled energy names lower Friday.

The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.

A blowout jobs report pushed Canadian equities to a fresh high. A widening Iran conflict pushed oil and gold to their own. Friday's US retail sales miss cracked one of those stories without touching the other.

Canadian energy and industrial strength pushed the TSX composite to 36,475.92 on Tuesday, even as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed lower on fading Hormuz optimism.

WTI posted its sharpest single-session decline since February, yet the TSX Composite closed higher, lifted by easing bond yields that helped financials and rate-sensitive names outrun energy's drag. Wednesday's Fed decision determines which side of that divergence keeps winning.

The TSX closed at 35,578.04 on a battery metals and energy rally Wednesday, while Wall Street de-risked into two earnings reports that went on to confirm the worry.

Brent touched $90 and WTI hit $84.59 Monday on the same headlines, but Toronto and New York read them in opposite directions: U.S. indices rallied on a semiconductor rebound ahead of this week's earnings while the TSX's precious metals weighting dragged it lower.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.79% Monday and Nasdaq fell 1.55%, then both rebounded Tuesday alongside an IBM earnings collapse and a semiconductor whipsaw. The TSX Composite moved less than a point of range either day, and its sector mix explains why.

Energy and materials led Monday's pullback in Toronto while AI-driven buying pushed the Dow to a record close in New York. Tuesday's shipping attack in the Strait of Hormuz has barely moved oil, leaving Canadian energy names to open into the same soft price that pressured them Monday.