Oil fell sixteen percent and a war stayed open, yet Canadian equities closed May at record highs. The months data reveals an index that quietly relocated its risk from the oil price to the rate path.

Oil's 17% monthly collapse and a technical recession printed on the same day. Neither is the story. The story is what they did together to the Bank of Canada's decision calculus.

Canada is technically in a recession. A 60-day Hormuz ceasefire extension is taking shape. WTI is at $87.20. Gold is at a two-month low. The TSX opened higher anyway, and the sector rotation explains exactly which of those four facts the market thinks is most important today.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

Statistics Canada's Q1 GDP print confirmed this morning that Canada is technically in recession. The data is thin enough to argue either way. What it cannot avoid doing is forcing the Bank of Canada's hand at its June 10 decision.

Canada's technical recession arrived the same month the Spring Economic Update extended the Home Buyers' Plan repayment grace period to 2028. The two events together reshape what advisors should be telling RRSP-holding clients who are planning a home purchase.

Canada's Q1 GDP print triggered a news cycle built around one word. Understanding what that word does to investor decision-making is where the advisory opportunity lives.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

Wednesday's 0.70% TSX decline was driven almost entirely by a single event: Iranian state media's report of a draft Hormuz MOU that the White House immediately denied. Thursday morning, after the IRGC struck a U.S. airbase overnight, oil is back up 2% and TSX futures are higher. The Dow hit a record close both days.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

Statistics Canada releases Q1 2026 GDP figures Friday morning. The Bank of Canada meets in 13 days. The data arrives into an environment where the BoC has explicitly left both cuts and hikes on the table -- making the read-through more consequential than a normal quarterly release.

The CRA confirmed Tuesday that the prescribed rate stays at 3% through September 30. For clients with higher-income spouses or family trusts, the income-splitting opportunity has been available for over a year. The question is how many of them have not yet acted.

When headline numbers beat expectations and equity prices still fall, the mental accounting gap between "my bank is profitable" and "my portfolio is fine" widens. That gap is where advisors earn their value.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Monday's peace rally erased Tuesday on fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The market is no longer pricing a near-term resolution. Canadian portfolios need to be read against that new baseline.