Canada's economy contracted for two straight quarters while inflation ran above 2.5%. June 10 is almost certainly a hold. The more consequential question is what the Bank says about July 15, and whether the data has shifted its bias.

Energy positions sitting on large unrealized gains, a confirmed 50% capital gains inclusion rate, and $109,000 in cumulative TFSA room: the conditions for a mid-year rebalancing conversation are better than they have been in three years.

Three months after the Hormuz shock triggered waves of retail selling, the TSX sits near its 2026 high. Loss aversion drove the exits. The same mechanism is now preventing re-entry.

Canada closes at record equity highs while sitting in a technical recession. The market has already priced the outcome it wants from the Bank of Canada. The data says the Bank has no comfortable move.

Iran's talk suspension sent energy names higher and financials lower on Monday. The TSX closed at 34,734 on June 1. Tuesday opens with oil near $92 WTI and a market pricing a base-case resolution it cannot fully trust.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualised, the second consecutive quarterly decline. The Bank of Canada meets in eight days. The stagflation problem has not resolved.

CRA assessed $166 million in excess TFSA taxes in 2024. The number of penalised holders has quadrupled since 2015. The contribution room rules have not changed. The errors have.

Iran's suspension of U.S. talks triggered an 8% oil spike, a partial recovery, and a predictable wave of retail selling. The research on this pattern is three decades old. The outcome is still the same.

Iran's talk suspension and a 6% WTI spike are being read as an escalation. The more precise read: today moved the end-June deadline Goldman is watching by days or weeks, not by scenario. The real decision point for Canadian energy portfolios comes if July arrives with Hormuz still closed.

The TSX closed at 34,769 on Friday, up 0.73%, as financials, tech, and gold miners advanced while the energy sub-index fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain, closing at 7,580. The Dow crossed 51,000 for the first time. The AI earnings cycle and the ceasefire trade are pulling the two markets in the same direction for opposite reasons.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day MOU on May 28 that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has not yet signed it. And even a signed deal does not restore oil supply: Pentagon briefings put mine-clearing at up to six months, and Middle East producers need three to four months to restart shut-in capacity.

Canada confirmed a technical recession on May 29 as Q1 GDP contracted 0.1% annualized. Markets are 99% priced for a June 10 hold at 2.25%. The real question is whether a softening oil price path changes the BoC's forward guidance more than its near-term rate decision.

The Canadian Entrepreneurs' Incentive reached $800,000 in 2026. Combined with the indexed LCGE of $1,275,000, eligible business owners can shelter up to $2,075,000 in capital gains from a qualifying sale. Most are not planning around it.

Brent crude has fallen roughly 20% from its April peak. Most Canadian investors are still anchored to the high. Understanding why is what separates a useful advisor conversation from a useless one.

Five days, three simultaneous frameworks, and a TSX that ended the week higher than it started. What changed in the analytical picture, and what advisors need to carry into June.