Materials stocks led a rebound Wednesday even as the Iran conflict widened, and the index remains within striking distance of the record it set three weeks ago.

Inflation has risen in three of the last four months while the policy rate has not moved since October, narrowing the gap between where rates sit and where the Bank's own target requires them to be.

A hawkish hold moved the loonie by six hundredths of a cent. Gold, silver and the TSX miners moved on something else entirely: a second wave of US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation across the region.

Governor Macklem has attached explicit oil-price conditionality to the next rate move, while markets are pricing almost none of it.

The GoC 10-year hit its highest close since early August as a worldwide sovereign selloff overwhelmed a 2.6% oil rally, weakening the loonie and the TSX the day before Wednesday's rate decision.

July CPI came in at 3.0%, above target and rising, while an escalating trade war argues for cuts. Wednesday's decision resolves nothing; it just picks which risk the Bank tolerates longer.

Gold fell as the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a break from precedent that says rate expectations, not geopolitics, are now driving cross-asset pricing into the Bank of Canada's Wednesday decision.

A hold at 2.25% is the consensus call for September 2. The weekend's US-Iran exchange revives the same energy-price mechanism that pushed headline inflation to a war-era peak in May.

Statistics Canada delivered the strongest quarterly growth number in three years this morning. By afternoon the TSX was down anyway, tracking gold and the loonie lower on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, while Wall Street read the same remarks and rallied.

Statistics Canada releases second quarter GDP this morning, but the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision was already close to locked in before the data arrived.

A cross-desk read of Thursday’s close shows Canada’s currency reacting to Ottawa’s tariff fight with Washington, not to the easing Strait of Hormuz premium that pulled crude lower.

Canada's benchmark yield touched a two-year high, retreated, and climbed back on Wednesday's inflation data. The path says more about the Fed than about the Bank of Canada's own case for holding.

A hot US inflation print undid four sessions of declining Government of Canada yields within hours, while equity volatility barely moved and two unrelated good-news stories pulled the TSX in different directions at once.

Canada's 10-year yield eased to 3.65% from a 26-month high as trade war escalation overrode a 75,000-job July gain in shaping expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.

Bond markets price next Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision as a near certainty. The consequential rate event is three days earlier, when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote.

The trade collapse did not just move headline numbers Monday. It reversed a two week bond rally and a two week currency rally that had nothing to do with each other, while gold kept climbing on a completely separate story.