A jobs report that collapsed Fed hike odds should have sent Canadian yields lower and given the Bank of Canada room. It did the opposite. The bond market is now pricing Canada as a standalone inflation story, and July 15 is not what the morning said it was.

The composite had to price two American sessions in one open after Canada Day. CNQ fell 3.5%, Suncor 3.2%, while utilities and financials rose more than 1% on the U.S. jobs miss.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

The 0.5% April GDP reading was the strongest in a year, broad across 14 industries. The advance for May is already back to 0.1%, and July 15 is two weeks away.

Gold had its worst quarter in 13 years. Oil fell nearly 25%. The TSX gained 6.4%. Those facts belong to different markets. By close today, it was clear they were in the same one.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

The composite rose 0.4% to 34,980. Energy and banks fell, mining rallied even as gold itself fell, and tech extended a separate run, all on the same session's Hormuz headlines.

The slide pulled the TSX energy sub-index down nearly 4% in Friday trading, the sharpest one-day move since the Strait of Hormuz reopening began.

Energy and gold names dragged the TSX down 0.5% Tuesday. A blowout Micron earnings report overnight has flipped the script for Canadian tech names heading into Thursday's session.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

The composite slipped 0.21 percent Tuesday after Monday's gain, but the headline number hides a split: financials firmer on a regulatory tailwind, energy and gold names softer as their commodity supports both retreat.

Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.

A 60-day US license for Iranian oil sales and a Geneva peace framework have pushed crude to a three-month low, and the Canadian energy re-rating built on a closed shipping lane is the first thing testing that move.

WTI's slide toward the mid 70s and a stronger US dollar are hitting Canadian sectors very differently this week. The mechanism behind the divergence, and what it means heading into Monday's open.