A weekend tanker strike and a damaged Saudi pipeline pushed WTI toward $103, but stocks, gold and the Canadian dollar all moved the other way, pointing to Wednesday''s Fed decision as the real driver.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,697.49 on September 11, down 3.7 percent from its August high, even as WTI settled above $100 a barrel for the second time in a week.

WTI crude closed at $102.55 on September 13, the day an Iranian vessel was struck near Qeshm, and the chain from the Strait of Hormuz to Canadian portfolios runs through gasoline prices, energy equities, and the currency.

The Bank of Canada has left its rate at 2.25 percent through seven consecutive decisions; the Federal Reserve meets Wednesday with hike odds now a clear majority.

The five-year Government of Canada yield has climbed 21 basis points off its August low to a five-week high, and the CPI print due this morning could push it further.

AAII bearish sentiment sits near 40 percent while the VIX stays below 18, a gap the availability heuristic explains better than the headlines do.

The Bank of Canada held for a seventh straight decision while Fed hike odds climbed past seventy per cent, both reacting to the same barrel of oil that also pulled the TSX to a six-week low even as Canadian energy names rallied around it.

The oil-driven CPI shock and the TSX afternoon rebound on Friday are not two separate stories. They are the same number, working in opposite directions inside one trading session, while the Bank of Canada arrives at the identical conclusion through its own tariff-driven channel.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 35,616.77 on Thursday, down 0.81 per cent, as a U.S. procurement threat hit Canadian engineering and infrastructure names hard enough that a surging oil price could not offset the damage.

WTI crude closed at $102.48 on September 10, up 25 per cent since mid-August, as U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian retaliation against ships using unauthorized routes have cut Hormuz traffic by more than a third.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25 per cent on September 2 while U.S. futures markets now price roughly seventy per cent odds the Federal Reserve hikes on September 16. Twelve months ago the two banks were cutting in lockstep.

Inflation data already published makes the 2027 TFSA increase to $7,500 mathematically certain months before the CRA confirms it, and it arrives alongside a now-settled capital gains inclusion rate that changes what advisors can tell clients with confidence.

Volatility has risen for four consecutive weeks as the tanker war in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, yet investor behaviour shows the opposite of panic. The research explains why that is a warning sign, not reassurance.

Canada's 10-year yield hit a fresh two-year high Thursday, but Reuters and Investing.com are now attributing the move to a global bond selloff tied to a soft U.S. Treasury buyback plan, not the tariff dispute that explained the prior two sessions. Only part of that move unwinds if Friday's CPI comes in soft.

The composite closed at 35,906.56 Wednesday, down 0.6% and in its fourth decline in five sessions, even as WTI crude climbed toward $100 on the tanker war.

WTI has surged since the U.S. and Iran began trading strikes on tankers in the Persian Gulf. The currency that usually tracks Canadian energy windfalls closely has barely moved, and that gap is the real portfolio question.