A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

The day's synthesis: TD and NBC delivered the earnings the market needed. Then U.S. PCE inflation and the Hormuz MOU status together produced a closing read the morning could not have anticipated.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

Monday's peace rally erased Tuesday on fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The market is no longer pricing a near-term resolution. Canadian portfolios need to be read against that new baseline.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Oil bounced 3-4% on Khamenei's uranium edict, but Canadian energy stocks barely moved. That divergence tells you exactly what the market is betting on -- and what happens if it's wrong.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE convinced Trump to stand down from a planned Tuesday strike on Iran. The ceasefire is alive. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. For Canadian energy investors, the calculus depends on which scenario resolves this standoff: a deal in weeks, or stalemate through the summer.

Canada's April inflation print came in below consensus and core cooled to a five-year low. Yields rose anyway. That contradiction is the most important signal of the day for Canadian portfolios.

Trump called off a planned Iran strike overnight. Brent fell 2%. The structural impasse between Washington and Tehran remains exactly where it was, and the Hormuz timeline for Canadian energy portfolios has not changed.

Canada's April CPI came in below the worst fears. History is clear on what retail investors do next, and it is rarely right.

Trump convened a national security review of military options against Iran on Sunday. A meeting with advisors is scheduled for Tuesday. The IRGC has threatened to "deactivate" US Gulf bases. Day 80 of the Hormuz closure arrives with the ceasefire visibly fraying — and with it the oil premium that has driven every major market move of 2026.

The Trump-Xi summit ended without China committing to pressure Iran on the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations are on life support. For Canadian portfolios, the geopolitical story is now about how long the oil premium persists, and what that means for the Bank of Canada's June 10 calculus.