Wednesday's 0.70% TSX decline was driven almost entirely by a single event: Iranian state media's report of a draft Hormuz MOU that the White House immediately denied. Thursday morning, after the IRGC struck a U.S. airbase overnight, oil is back up 2% and TSX futures are higher. The Dow hit a record close both days.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

When headline numbers beat expectations and equity prices still fall, the mental accounting gap between "my bank is profitable" and "my portfolio is fine" widens. That gap is where advisors earn their value.

Three major Canadian banks topped Q2 estimates and raised dividends. The TSX still closed lower. Understanding why that happened tells you what the June 10 Bank of Canada decision now hinges on.

Tuesday's U.S. strikes in Iran collapsed Monday's peace rally. BMO and Scotiabank beat estimates this morning but the market is opening under a different set of assumptions than it held 24 hours ago.

Monday's peace rally erased Tuesday on fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The market is no longer pricing a near-term resolution. Canadian portfolios need to be read against that new baseline.

Inflation accelerated on energy. Core held just above 2%. The BoC said it would look through the shock. That position is getting harder to maintain as the Hormuz closure drags into its fourth month.

When markets fall hard on geopolitical shock, investors withdraw from TFSAs to move to safety. The recontribution mistake is the predictable next step, and it costs them in ways they never see coming.

Oil fell more than 10% this week as Hormuz de-escalation advanced. The TSX financials fell with it. That contradiction contains the most important setup of the next 48 hours.

Monday's 1% TSX gain happened without US participation. Tuesday's session -- the first with both markets open since the Iran framework -- will test whether the relief trade holds or overshoots.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

April CPI hit 2.8% on war-premium energy costs, yet core inflation fell to a five-year low. The Iran MOU may resolve the contradiction -- but it creates a new one for the Bank of Canada ahead of June 10.

A ceasefire framework that could reopen the strait within 60 days changes the math for clients sitting on war-premium gains in energy and gold. The planning window is narrower than it looks.

When geopolitical relief rallies arrive, investors sell their winners and hold their losers. The research explains why, and what it costs.

WTI fell toward $91 today as Iran deal proximity reshaped the energy market faster than most May frameworks assumed. The GoC 5-year eased to 3.12%. Canadian bank Q2 earnings begin Tuesday. These three facts, held together, produce a conclusion none of the morning desks could reach individually.

WTI's 5% peace deal drop hits energy -- 17% of the TSX -- but hands a tailwind to financials, consumer, and rate-sensitives. Whether the index holds near its all-time high depends on which side of that trade wins Monday. Bank earnings this week are the next catalyst.