WTI dropped 4% premarket Friday. The S&P 500 added 1.75% Thursday. Nasdaq jumped 2.54%. The TSX faces the same sector rotation it saw in April, only this time the war premium has further to unwind.

Trump cancelled Thursday's strikes and said a deal is basically done. Brent fell below $86. The Hormuz re-rating that lifted Canadian energy for three months is now running in reverse.

The TSX composite fell approximately 0.3% on Wednesday as base metals, technology, and rate-sensitive sectors absorbed the Bank of Canada's two-way risk language while energy names partially offset the decline on renewed Hormuz escalation. The session illustrated a structural divide in the Canadian market that has persisted since late February.

The April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. US strikes on June 9 and 10 resumed the kinetic phase of the conflict. Iran retaliated against US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed. For Canadian portfolios, the question is not whether the war premium returns. It is whether the market has correctly priced the duration of the disruption.

WTI has dropped more than $20 from its April peak. Clients sitting on large energy gains are feeling something Kahneman identified in 1979. The advisor who understands the disposition effect will hold them in place. The one who does not will watch them lock in a tax bill and miss the next leg.

The language shift nobody noticed: why Macklem's "near-term" replaced "immediate" at exactly the moment WTI hit $90 on a seventh consecutive inventory draw.

The TSX shed 67 points Tuesday as rate-sensitive financials and utilities dragged while energy held. The composite is navigating two separate markets dressed as one index.

Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

WTI broke below $88 on ceasefire headlines that haven't been formalized. The Bank of Canada speaks tomorrow with guidance built around elevated energy. The five-basis-point bond move doesn't price what Macklem now has to say.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

Missiles over Tel Aviv on Sunday night. The TSX up 0.19% on Monday. The gap between what your clients felt and what markets did is not an anomaly. It is the availability heuristic doing exactly what Tversky and Kahneman predicted it would.

The TSX hit 35,217 Thursday, then shed 803 points Friday on a jobs report that repriced the Fed. The sector rotation inside that decline is the real story.

Clients shifting appreciated energy positions into their TFSAs are triggering taxable deemed dispositions. The loss side is worse: those capital losses are gone permanently.

One hundred days into a war that has paralyzed the world's most important energy chokepoint, the Canadian financial landscape has been reshaped in ways that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not fully undo.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sent Brent crude down more than 3% on June 4 and reset the probability structure for Canadian energy equities. The TSX energy sub-index has outperformed the composite by a significant margin since March 4. The question today is whether that premium survives a diplomatic process that has failed four times before.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.