The interim ceasefire and the sanctioned toll authority's 60-day waiver both lapse today, and neither expiry resolves how oil is actually still moving through the strait.

Investors have learned that Strait of Hormuz headlines are buying opportunities. The mechanism that produced that lesson just changed.

A blowout jobs report pushed Canadian equities to a fresh high. A widening Iran conflict pushed oil and gold to their own. Friday's US retail sales miss cracked one of those stories without touching the other.

Friday's sector rotation mirrored Thursday's record close in reverse, and oil's refusal to react to stalled Hormuz talks confirms the story has moved from supply to demand.

Trump and Iran's foreign minister traded accusations over control of the strait, but the price move came from the IEA and OPEC's demand forecasts, not the conflict itself.

Brent snapped a six session rally Thursday, not because anything resolved in the Strait of Hormuz, but because a genuine forecasting split between the world's two largest energy bodies finally showed up in price.

A CENTCOM missile strike, a deadly Houthi attack in the Red Sea, and a Trump demand for war reparations are running on one track this week. Advanced talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are running on another. Oil is pricing both at once.

Deal-hope optimism sent the TSX to a financials-led record while Canada's 10-year yield spiked to a 26-month high on the same day, pricing the same story two different ways.

A tanker attack, a Saudi refinery strike and dueling preconditions have Brent near a five-week high, right as the Bank of Canada heads into its September decision.

WTI and Brent jumped roughly 4 percent as Washington and Tehran each pointed to the naval blockade as the actual obstacle, a sharper claim than either side has made in weeks. Gold barely moved and the Canadian dollar stayed flat, leaving the loonie without the lift its own yield advantage and oil's rally would normally provide.

Last week's oil selloff assumed a Hormuz deal was close. Iran's weekend preconditions confirm it is not, and the chain runs straight back to the Bank of Canada's inflation math.

Friday's gold and oil decoupling was real. Assuming it holds without the Hormuz deal actually closing is the availability heuristic at work.

The reported Iran-Oman shipping agreement faces three separate approval points before it changes anything for Canadian energy portfolios, and this week's gold rally was driven by something else entirely.

WTI's whipsaw between Hormuz deal headlines and tanker incident headlines is the availability heuristic playing out in real time, and it is not settling anything for clients trying to read the trend.

Financials have gained 22% since the war began in February while materials fell 25%. The rotation behind that split, not Wednesday's single session, is what built the TSX's record, and Thursday's oil whipsaw shows the war that caused it hasn't actually ended.

Markets have priced steady de-escalation. A nearly identical arrangement collapsed three weeks ago, and Wednesday brought both a Houthi tanker attack and an Iranian statement that the strait stays closed until the US ends its blockade.