The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting even as headline inflation eased, while a Federal Reserve under a new chair who refuses to signal its next move heads into its own decision next week.

The Bank of Canada held for a sixth straight meeting, but the five-year bond yield that actually prices fixed mortgages just touched a two-month high, and the gap matters most for anyone renewing in the next eighteen months.

The TSX's sharpest rebound in weeks came one session after its worst close in eight, and the clients who reacted to Monday's headlines are the ones who missed it.

Brent touched $90 and WTI hit $84.59 Monday on the same headlines, but Toronto and New York read them in opposite directions: U.S. indices rallied on a semiconductor rebound ahead of this week's earnings while the TSX's precious metals weighting dragged it lower.

The mandatory six-year review of the trade agreement became an annual one after the United States declined to extend it on July 1, and that shift in frequency, not any single tariff line, is what changes the planning calculus for CCPC clients with U.S.-facing revenue.

A single conciliatory sentence from Tehran erased most of a four dollar intraday move in WTI crude on the same weekend the conflict's confirmed U.S. death toll rose to 17, while gold barely moved at all.

The S&P/TSX Composite closed Thursday at 35,340.15, down 0.21 per cent and essentially unchanged from Friday's close five sessions earlier. In between, the index touched a record high, then gave nearly all of it back in a single session, as elevated oil prices and falling gold prices pulled the benchmark in opposite directions all week.

Wednesday's hold at 2.25 per cent came with a higher 2026 inflation forecast, a lower 2026 growth forecast, and the Governor's most upbeat tone since January. The mechanism connecting all three: a temporary, war-driven energy shock layered on top of a domestic recovery the Bank believes is only now broadening.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.79% Monday and Nasdaq fell 1.55%, then both rebounded Tuesday alongside an IBM earnings collapse and a semiconductor whipsaw. The TSX Composite moved less than a point of range either day, and its sector mix explains why.

The Bank of Canada announces at 9:45 a.m. Eastern with markets pricing a near-certain hold. Fifteen minutes later, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces the Senate to explain a committee that grew more hawkish in June even as US inflation cooled. Both are being asked to price the same barrel of oil.

Energy gains booked inside a corporate portfolio this year do not touch this year's tax bill. They determine how much of next year's small business deduction survives, and the window to manage that number closes December 31.

Energy strength was not enough to offset financials and materials on Bay Street, and Tuesday's steeper losses are landing in Asia, where Kospi is down 3.2% while North American futures sit close to flat.

The CRA's family loan rate holds at 3% for a fifth straight quarter, and today's bond market reaction to the Hormuz escalation is a live reminder of what sets the number that replaces it.

Friday's close left the index within 0.9% of its June 17 high. Tuesday's US inflation data, Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision, and Warsh's first Congressional testimony now land inside a single 48 hour window, against a backdrop of oil already up more than 4% Monday.

The United States declined to extend CUSMA for a new sixteen year term at the July 1 review, leaving the agreement in force but subject to annual renegotiation through 2036. For CCPC owners with cross border exposure, that changes the planning calculus now.

The TSX gained 0.76% Thursday to 35,200, led by gold miners and the banks, even as the Iran conflict widened to two new countries. Why a U.S. chip rally and easing bond yields did the real work, and what a five-week, 613-point trading range says about Canadian equity exposure.