Tanker traffic through the corridor has collapsed to a fraction of its usual volume since fighting between US and Iranian forces resumed, and the market has already priced in most of the disruption without a full shutdown.

The gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada compressed to 150 basis points by December, and the September hike pushed it straight back to 175.

The rate used for income splitting loans has held at 3 percent for six straight quarters, and the Treasury Bill yields that set the next one are already climbing.

The Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point increase that its own projections had signalled for weeks, yet markets reacted as though it were a surprise.

A hawkish Fed hike hit Wall Street and TSX financials the same day Ottawa and Brussels moved to deepen trade and defence ties.

Energy strength from the Hormuz-driven oil rally is fighting a three-week slide in base metals, financials, and technology, with a near-certain Federal Reserve hike this afternoon adding a fresh cross-current.

WTI crude near $105 a barrel is no longer only a Market Desk story. It is a direct input into a Federal Reserve decision markets call almost certain, and Canadian energy exposure is the main channel back to portfolios.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates this afternoon for the first time since 2023, while the Bank of Canada just held for an eighth straight meeting facing the same energy-driven inflation pressure.

The CRA holds its prescribed rate at 3% for a sixth straight quarter, but a Federal Reserve hike expected today and a rising Government of Canada five-year yield point toward a higher reset in the new year.

VIX sits in the mid-teens as Strait of Hormuz strikes continue and the Federal Reserve prepares its first rate increase since 2023, a gap behavioural finance has a name for.

The safe-haven trade that should have followed a physical bypass shutdown around the Strait of Hormuz never arrived, and the reason points to Wednesday's rate decision, not the war.

The index closed at 35,703.47 on September 14, down from a late-August high of 36,957.63, despite Canadian Natural Resources, Tourmaline and Suncor all posting gains through the same stretch. Technology weakness and a jittery run-up to Wednesday's Fed decision are absorbing more than energy is contributing.

The Saudi East-West pipeline was Riyadh's answer to the Hormuz closure, a 4 to 5 million barrel-a-day route to the Red Sea that did not need the Strait at all. Drone strikes shut it down September 10 and 11. The mechanism from there to Canadian portfolios is direct and already visible.

Canadian inflation held at 3% in August on rent and gasoline. The Fed meets Wednesday with markets pricing roughly nine-in-ten odds of a hike on the same oil-driven pressure. The two central banks are reading the identical shock in opposite directions.

The rate governing family income-splitting loans has not moved since the third quarter of 2025. For clients who have not yet set one up, the cost of waiting is now measurable in dollars, not just in missed opportunity.

The CBOE Volatility Index spiked after the Saudi pipeline strike and retreated within a single session, even as WTI crude kept climbing. The anchoring effect behind that gap is worth naming before the next escalation arrives.