On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

Crude has rolled all the way back to pre-war levels even with Hormuz still unresolved, and Canadian energy stocks are absorbing the hit while the broader index holds near record territory.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

The composite rose 0.4% to 34,980. Energy and banks fell, mining rallied even as gold itself fell, and tech extended a separate run, all on the same session's Hormuz headlines.

The slide pulled the TSX energy sub-index down nearly 4% in Friday trading, the sharpest one-day move since the Strait of Hormuz reopening began.

Energy and gold names dragged the TSX down 0.5% Tuesday. A blowout Micron earnings report overnight has flipped the script for Canadian tech names heading into Thursday's session.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

The composite slipped 0.21 percent Tuesday after Monday's gain, but the headline number hides a split: financials firmer on a regulatory tailwind, energy and gold names softer as their commodity supports both retreat.

Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.

A 60-day US license for Iranian oil sales and a Geneva peace framework have pushed crude to a three-month low, and the Canadian energy re-rating built on a closed shipping lane is the first thing testing that move.

WTI's slide toward the mid 70s and a stronger US dollar are hitting Canadian sectors very differently this week. The mechanism behind the divergence, and what it means heading into Monday's open.

The price reaction to Saturday's closure claim was a fraction of what the same claim produced in March and April. The reason is the chain that matters for Canadian energy producers heading into the back half of the year.

Canadian General Investments' Greg Eckel called it a two sector hit. Toromont Industries posted the day's biggest single name move, up 15.1%, for reasons that had nothing to do with either story.

The Hormuz MOU and a hawkish Fed dot plot arrived at the same time. The TSX did not average them. It picked a side.

The TSX dropped 0.75% to 35,125 Wednesday as energy and gold miners absorbed a collapsing oil price while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise that hit banks too.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.