The safe-haven trade clients expect broke down exactly when the news looked most alarming, and the availability heuristic explains why they will not see it coming next time.

WTI is up about a percent from Monday's four week low after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the first breach of the June 17 memorandum of understanding. The Bank of Canada's blackout for the July 15 decision started this morning, before either the attack or the market's tepid reaction to it could enter the public record.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after a one week de-escalation arrangement expired. WTI is still trading near a four month low. That gap between the event and the price is the story.

Gold fell 16 percent from its April peak as the market priced a durable calm in the Strait of Hormuz. Monday night's tanker attack is a live test of recency bias, and it will play out in client phone calls before it plays out in prices.

Physical shipping through the strait has already caught up to what this morning's Geopolitical piece called a lagging recovery, but a fresh OPEC+ supply increase, not the August toll dispute, is what pulled Canadian energy names down today.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

US-Iran technical talks in Qatar wrapped Tuesday with Qatar reporting progress on the Islamabad MOU. Oil slid to $67, down 43% from its April war peak, as the toll sovereignty dispute remains open.

On June 17, the US-Iran ceasefire set the TSX all-time high and crashed oil twenty percent in the same session. June closed flat. The interior of that flat number is one of the most violent sector rotations of the year.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Investors are abandoning the asset built for exactly this moment, and the research explains why.

Iran hit two more tankers, the U.S. struck back twice, and both sides stood down ahead of Doha talks on June 30. The mechanism that actually moves a Canadian portfolio runs through war risk insurance, not the headlines.

Iran struck two more tankers. The U.S. struck back twice. Oil recovered to $70.53 and gold fell to a four month low, because the two assets are pricing different parts of the same story.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.