Gold fell 16 percent from its April peak as the market priced a durable calm in the Strait of Hormuz. Monday night's tanker attack is a live test of recency bias, and it will play out in client phone calls before it plays out in prices.

WTI has round-tripped back to its pre-war level, but physical flow through the strait sits at about half of pre-conflict volume, and an unresolved toll dispute is the mechanism that could reopen the gap.

US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded Wednesday with 'positive progress' but no breakthrough. Negotiations are now formally paused until after Khamenei's six-day funeral procession ends July 9. The pause is not a setback. It is the period during which the oil market will price the next round's probability of success.

The mandatory six-year CUSMA review formally began this week, with auto rules of origin and EV supply chains on the table. Most advisors are watching the trade angle. The more immediate planning question is what a prolonged negotiation means for the clients whose registered accounts hold US-listed securities.

The toll-free window in the US-Iran memorandum runs out around August 16, and Tehran has already signaled what comes next.

Iran hit two more tankers, the U.S. struck back twice, and both sides stood down ahead of Doha talks on June 30. The mechanism that actually moves a Canadian portfolio runs through war risk insurance, not the headlines.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at its fastest pace since the war began, but Wednesday's attack on a cargo vessel shows how little it would take to reverse that.

Oil has priced in a peaceful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The deal that produced it expires in eight weeks, and the mechanism that follows is built on a sanctioned entity.

Iran's free passage commitment through the Strait of Hormuz expires in late August unless a final deal replaces it. Oil prices have already priced the resolution as done.

A 60-day US license for Iranian oil sales and a Geneva peace framework have pushed crude to a three-month low, and the Canadian energy re-rating built on a closed shipping lane is the first thing testing that move.

The price reaction to Saturday's closure claim was a fraction of what the same claim produced in March and April. The reason is the chain that matters for Canadian energy producers heading into the back half of the year.

CRA confirmed the family income splitting rate stays at 3 percent for a fifth consecutive quarter beginning July 1, but the corporate pertinent loan rate ticked up for the first time since the rate cycle began easing in 2024.

Iran's safe passage guarantee for commercial shipping has a literal expiration date, Israel has not signed on, and a $24 billion dispute remains open. None of that is in this week's oil price.

WTI has fallen nearly 30% since the Hormuz memorandum was signed. On June 17, Trump warned bombing could resume. The market has not adjusted, and that gap is the tail risk Canadian portfolios are not pricing.

WTI has fallen below $77 and Brent below $79 on the prospect of Friday's Geneva signing. The gap between that price move and the physical reality of restoring tanker traffic is the risk Canadian energy investors are not pricing.

Trump and Iran announced a framework overnight. The signing is Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will not normalize for months. Canadian portfolios need to hold both of those facts at once.