WTI has fallen for three straight sessions since Washington's sweeping new Iran sanctions, because the sanctions spared Iran's trading partners and a parallel Hormuz corridor deal is progressing. Canadian energy and inflation now cut in opposite directions.

The exact marker Geopolitical named this morning as the line between diplomatic pressure and real supply risk fired Tuesday. WTI's muted reaction says the market is not buying the supply story, and the VIX did not move either.

The trade collapse did not just move headline numbers Monday. It reversed a two week bond rally and a two week currency rally that had nothing to do with each other, while gold kept climbing on a completely separate story.

Friday's TSX gain was narrower than the headline number suggested. This morning's currency move is the cleaner signal for how seriously markets are taking the trade dispute.

A Treasury bond buyback reversed within 24 hours, yet gold kept the gain it produced, oil rallied on a separate Hormuz story, and the loonie strengthened for a third straight week ahead of Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole debut and the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision.

The TSX Composite closed nearly unchanged Thursday even as banks fell and gold miners rallied sharply, with today's session set to turn on whether the US and Canada finalize a trade deal before tonight's tariff deadline.

The TSX Composite closed nearly flat after gold miners and Canadian banks moved double digits in opposite directions, while US indices fell broadly on a semiconductor selloff ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 19 to 3 over the past week as President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, the neutral party brokering a shipping deal, introducing a new failure mode for the crisis.

Banks and miners fell, energy rose, and a semiconductor selloff that started in the US spread to South Korea overnight.

A genuine Strait of Hormuz escalation and a fresh 19 year high in long yields hit the tape on the same afternoon. Only one of them moved gold.

Energy and gold names had a strong Monday. Technology and rate-sensitive names didn't. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest close since 2007 is what decides which story wins Tuesday.

A vessel struck overnight, Iran's language just got sharper, and Trump has widened the threat to a third country. Oil is up, but nowhere near March's peak. That gap is the story.

Statistics Canada's July inflation surprise and the Geopolitical desk's Hormuz toll deadline were written up this morning as two unrelated stories. They are the same mechanism, a few hours apart.

Toronto retreated from a record close on tech weakness and soft US data. The overnight tape shows a risk-off tilt across commodities and volatility as the Hormuz ceasefire formally expires today.

The interim ceasefire and the sanctioned toll authority's 60-day waiver both lapse today, and neither expiry resolves how oil is actually still moving through the strait.

A blowout jobs report pushed Canadian equities to a fresh high. A widening Iran conflict pushed oil and gold to their own. Friday's US retail sales miss cracked one of those stories without touching the other.