Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend and re-established a ceasefire by Monday. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed throughout. The war premium in oil is not a spike. It is a floor.

A US Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ceasefire that broke over the weekend is holding again, barely. Oil is at $89. The TSX energy sector is up 66% over twelve months. The question Canadian advisors should be positioning for is not another escalation. It is a deal.

Trump says a deal is largely negotiated. Iran says the description is incomplete and inconsistent with reality. WTI at $90 is the market's verdict on who is right.

June 4's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pulled oil prices roughly 3% lower and raised hopes for a broader US-Iran deal. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The distinction between a changed probability distribution and a changed physical reality is the entire analytical question for Canadian portfolios.

Iran struck Kuwait International Airport on June 3, suspended peace talks, and traded strikes with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through one variable: whether these escalations threaten the Hormuz supply disruption that has underpinned the energy re-rating since February 28.

WTI at $95 implies the market believes the Iran ceasefire holds and Hormuz reopens. The events of the past 72 hours suggest that confidence is misplaced. The gap between what is priced and what is possible is the risk Canadian energy portfolios are carrying right now.

Tehran cited Israel's Lebanon offensive as a ceasefire violation and halted communications with Washington. Oil spiked 8% before a partial recovery. The diplomatic architecture that has kept the conflict contained is now under its most serious stress test.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day MOU on May 28 that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has not yet signed it. And even a signed deal does not restore oil supply: Pentagon briefings put mine-clearing at up to six months, and Middle East producers need three to four months to restart shut-in capacity.

A 60-day ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran is taking shape today, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen. Trump has not signed. The deal is not done. But the direction of oil prices is already telling Canadian energy investors what to expect if it is.

The IRGC's Thursday morning strike on a U.S. airbase and a ballistic missile launch toward Kuwait are the most serious ceasefire violations since April. For Canadian energy portfolios that sold off Wednesday on deal optimism, the overnight reversal is not a buying signal -- it is a demonstration of the scenario that has been defining this market since March 4.

Monday's peace rally erased Tuesday on fresh U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The market is no longer pricing a near-term resolution. Canadian portfolios need to be read against that new baseline.

Trump's "largely negotiated" deal framework has sent oil prices down more than 10% this week and lifted the TSX. The chain of consequence for Canadian portfolios runs through what the agreement leaves unfinished.

Trump's "largely negotiated" declaration is the third major diplomatic signal since March to send oil lower. Each prior signal reversed. The Strait is still closed. Iran's negotiators are in Doha today still disputing its status. The portfolio implication is not what the headline suggests.

The April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held in name while intermittent fighting has continued since May 4. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Understanding the structure of the talks tells advisors more about the range of outcomes than any single diplomatic headline.

Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal. The UAE pipeline bypass is 50% built. ADNOC's CEO says normalization takes four months minimum even if conflict ends today. For Canadian energy investors, the question is no longer if the strait reopens but what the price floor looks like when it does.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE convinced Trump to stand down from a planned Tuesday strike on Iran. The ceasefire is alive. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. For Canadian energy investors, the calculus depends on which scenario resolves this standoff: a deal in weeks, or stalemate through the summer.