Trump called off what he described as the biggest strike on Iran since World War Two, then reissued an ultimatum within a day. The chain from that whiplash to Canadian portfolios runs through gasoline prices and the Bank of Canada's September 2 decision as much as through crude oil charts.

Fourteen vessels crossed the strait Wednesday without a political settlement behind them. The gap between operational improvement and an actual deal is where the risk to Canadian energy portfolios is sitting right now.

The US paused strikes overnight and Iran and Oman are still nowhere near a deal on the strait. Two commodities read the same week two different ways.

Wednesday's diplomatic track, the one this desk flagged as the base case two sessions ago, did not survive the week. WTI's climb back above $85 is the market's first read on whether this round of escalation resolves like the last one or does not.

Every missile Iran fired at US forces overnight was shot down, a familiar outcome after five months of war. What changed was Saudi Arabia joining US strikes in Iraq, a shift from broker to combatant with a direct mechanism into Canadian energy portfolios.

Houthi forces claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, the route built to move crude around the Strait of Hormuz entirely, the same day Oman proposed a formal Hormuz shipping mechanism. The base case still points to de-escalation, but the tail risk just moved to different infrastructure.

Houthi missiles struck two Aramco refining complexes Saturday, widening a war that had mostly stayed confined to Iran and its immediate coastline. Markets are pricing a different signal instead: a quiet pause between the United States and Iran that touches a far larger share of global oil supply.

Two Saudi tankers struck in the Red Sea push Brent past $100 for the first time since May. The muted reaction across the TSX and gold suggests markets still treat this as tail risk, not the base case.

Headline CPI eased to 2.8% on a temporary drop in gasoline prices. With Brent back above $100 and new tariffs landing before the Bank's next decision, the disinflation may not survive July.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic carrying Saudi crude surged more than tenfold this year as producers routed around Strait of Hormuz risk. A new Houthi blockade threat is closing that alternative just as Iran escalates attacks on the original chokepoint.

Market-implied odds of a July 29 Fed hike spiked past 46% and have since fallen under 17%, but oil is still climbing, and that leaves Governor Macklem facing the same inflation calculus with less certainty about what Washington does first.

The prescribed rate has held at three per cent for five straight quarters, the lowest sustained level since 2022, and Governor Macklem's own comments this month put a real hike scenario back on the table.

Eleven straight nights of strikes on Iran have not stopped the TSX from climbing toward its 52-week high, and the reason why should concern anyone extrapolating the trend forward.

Three new Section 338 proclamations put a 50 percent tariff on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and select vehicle categories starting August 19, but the sectors the U.S. chose not to touch say more about where this goes next.

Yemen's Houthis have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening the Red Sea export route Riyadh has used to offset the Strait of Hormuz disruption, even as markets show their first real mediation signal in over a week.

The alleged U.S. strike on Iran's under-construction Darkhovin nuclear facility is a different category of target than anything hit in the previous five months of this conflict, and the IAEA's finding, not Monday's oil price, is the variable that tells Canadian portfolios which of two paths this war takes next.